Thursday, April 17, 2008

An Obama Win In Pennsylvania

At least Brendan Loy hopes so:

Perhaps I'm being a pollyanna-ish member of the Cult of Obama here, but I think there is a real chance the voters of Pennsylvania will rise up and, once and for all, reject the endless, party-destroying "gotcha" tactics of Hillary Clinton, and choose the candidate of "change." It would be the backlash to end all backlashes. I'm not predicting it. But I think it could happen.

And it would be so sweet if it did.

Brendan, I think you might be smoking some of that fine sleep-deprivation dope all of us parents smoke. Here's the thing, if Obama seals the deal and actually wins over those he insulted in Pennsylvania, he's losing in the general election. And that's my prediction. Want to put down a friendly wager? With your track record, I think I might actually have a chance.

P.S. I loath Hillary, too. Just want to let you know we have something besides Tolkien and basketball in common.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

And although only a double-digit Hillary win in Penn will truly put her back in the running, any margin of victory for her will keep this contest in overtime.

Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg

Anonymous said...

Barack Hussein Obama will win the general election. There are enough people that are listening to what hes saying and not at his record. It feels good and thats what counts!!

Anonymous said...

I frankly don't care which dem wins. I just want this blood-bath to continue as long as in-humanly possible. Come June they'll probably be chain-sawing eachother's limbs off.

Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg

Brendan said...

Melissa,

I'm afraid I wouldn't take either of those bets. :) My Sullivan-linked "quasi-prediction" is just that -- as I said in the post, "I'm not predicting it. But I think it could happen." Also, I hate to channel Hillary's husband, but the definition of "it" is vague: to the extent I'm predicting anything at all, it isn't an Obama win, necessarily, but a "better than expected" showing, whatever that means. I definitely wouldn't give me better than a 10% chance of winning Pennsylvania.

As for the general election? I could see it going either way; I don't think things are as bleak for Obama as is widely believed right now. Things always look worse during a heated primary battle than they really are (see, e.g., Bush-McCain 2000, the scars of which supposedly made Bush totally unelectable). But while I think Obama has at least a fighting chance, I certainly wouldn't bet on him right now. If you forced me to lay down odds, I think I'd give McCain about a 55% chance of winning.

Which, as you say, may be bad news for McCain, given my track record. :)

Brendan said...

Oops:

"I definitely wouldn't give me better than a 10% chance of winning Pennsylvania."

obvious should read:

"I definitely wouldn't give him better than a 10% chance of winning Pennsylvania."

I guess I'm taking this "we are the ones we've been waiting for ... we are the change we seek" stuff a bit too seriously!! :) In any event, I definitely give myself a much less than 10% chance of winning Pennsylvania, considering I'm not on the ballot...

Anonymous said...

Barack Hussein Obama will win the general election. There are enough people that are listening to what hes saying...

Reciting the list of UN members In Alphabetical Order while the media and proletariat shriek like teenyboppers at the Beatles in '63?

Real Life imitates Left Behind...

Melissa Clouthier said...

Brendan,

Egads! McCain is doomed! Name Obama! Name Obama! Well, really, no one is counted out at this point, but I think Obama's foolishness, while endearing during the primaries, will be enough to harm his chances in the general. I have to believe that the Super Delegates are thinking about that. Their choice is between dumb and dumber.

sandy said...

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