Monday, April 10, 2006

Immigration Demonstration Consternation

Michelle Malkin has good coverage of the immigration madness gripping our illegal brothers from south o' the border.

While the Republicans are taking it on the chin in the press, while prominant Republicans including Amigo Bush in the White House pander for votes, while the conventional wisdom is that Republicans have more to lose without a Bill that includes amnesty, the widdle innocent Democrats cower away from the cameras and are surprisingly mute, for once (it is a blessed relief, even still), about this whole mess.

I'm gonna say it here, now: The Democrats have MORE to lose with any illegal immigration bill passed. If the push too hard for amnesty, they tick off another element of their party. Right now it matters. Blacks view Hispanics, especially Mexicans, as competitors for the same jobs. In Houston, for example, over 80% of whites view the Mexican immigrants as a good thing. Only 20% of blacks did. They saw blacks as competitors. Illegal workers drive wages down.

The Democrats walk a fine line. They count on 90% of the black vote. No questions asked. No thought involved. Blacks vote Democratic. (But even the few black conservatives and moderates don't like illegal immigration.) It's axiomatic. But Blacks are making a smaller piece of the Democratic pie every day due to population changes and location changes. (The New York Times just wrote a piece about the huge percentage of blacks moving out of New York City. NY is gonna be all colors of the rainbow, except black, in the near future.)

When Democrats (and Republicans) look into the future they see Brown not Black people getting them into office, if they play their cards right. Sure Hispanics are overwhelmingly Christian (traditionally more Republican). Sure Hispanics tend to Americanize, inter-marry, assimilate, etc. after two generations like other immigrants and end up paying taxes (traditionally more Republican). But, some people believe this doesn't matter. Some people believe immigrants will vote like their families who vote Democrat. Couple with this the Democrats actively stirring up a "victimhood mentality" in these new people, and if Democrats can believeably portray the Republicans as white bigots who hate poor people of any color (not hate ILLEGAL activities), they figure they have another big chunk of the electorate wrapped up. Or more wrapped up.

Twenty years, maybe even ten, from now, the Black vote won't matter as much to Democrats as it does today. Or, more accurately, it won't carry more weight than other color voting. Their block vote won't be the determining factor in any politician's win or losss. The numbers of other minorities will make the blacks even more marginalized. If some few blacks, Al Sharpton being one, have nagging suspicians that the Democrats take them for granted, that feeling will be more pronounced as they see the love-fest with their economic competition--not just jobs but social services and a "voice" in the political realm. Uh oh.

Already the AFL-CIO STRONGLY is against the "Guest Worker" program. Why? Lower wages, less power for them because of less membership, more competition, etc.

While many people, especially conservatives, view the whole illegal immigration as a security issue after 9/11, the politicians are viewing all things border related politically. Satisfying business owners (economics), satisfying Mexican leaders (diplomacy), satisfying future potential voters(pandering). Nevermind that the vast majority of the voting public is NOT SATISFIED with this proposed program--whether they are black, white or hispanic.

My prediction? That this whole issue won't be voted on this year, if ever. Both parties have a lot to lose in the mid-term elections with this stupid legislation. Almost everyone is irritated.

The Conventional Wisdom saying that Republicans have the most to lose is wishful thinking on the other side of the isle. Everyone, not least of which the average American (remember him, remember her, guys? they are the vast majority of people of all color who vote and pay taxes), has a lot to lose with this legislation. I'm guessing that all the politicos hope it will die on the vine. They stirred up the rats nest, though. If the illegals keep marching, it will be decided that SOMETHING MUST BE DONE. Maybe. With mid-term elections coming. Maybe not.

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