Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Predictions--UPDATE

UPDATE: Well, maybe the pessimists are right. Sometimes it is so disappointing to be an optimist, you know?

My question is this: Will the Dems come out for blood? Scandal, scandal, scandal? Or will they actually formulate plans, get more fiscally conservative and generally do what Reagan Republicans usually do? I vote for the former. There is so much venom and vitriol all around.

The Republicans have refused, and we can thank the President and Senate for this, to do much that is truly conservative--they dithered on Immigration and like Fred Barnes says, they deep-sixed the Presidents valid and necessary Social Security reforms in favor of....more dithering. The "moderate" middle needs to be smacked. Olympia Snowe, John McCain, Chaffee, Arlen Specter also can accept some of the thanks for this mess. They simply would not let conservative values become a priority.

Think I'm wrong? Heck, the Democrats getting elected sound more like Republicans. OK, more later.

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For what it's worth, John Hawkins has a round-up of predictions. Any way you slice these predictions feels dire to me and rather pessimistic (give me a break! Bill Kristol says we lose 40 seats in the House) but I'm no political prediction specialist. I go by "feelings". Here are my feelings:

  1. Polls will always favor Democrats based on how questions are asked and who actually takes the time to answer the questions.
  2. High turn-out benefits Republicans.
  3. Exit polls always favor Democrats. They are very concerned about being "heard." The Republicans figure their vote speaks for itself.
  4. While I believe Republicans are p.o.'d at Bush, it's because he isn't being aggressive enough, not conservative enough. How would a Democrat Congress help this? It doesn't make sense.
  5. Talk is cheap. Action matters. I just don't believe that average Americans are that outraged at Iraq. The economy is good. Democrats=Tax. Democrats=Cowardice. This nags at sensible people.
Feelings. Nothing but feelings. Maybe if I were looking at the data the Republican insiders were looking at I'd be terrified, too. Then why is Rove so confident?

6 comments:

David said...

I think all poll results are highly suspect. For one thing, many people under 27 or so have only cell phones, which are not included in normal random phone polling. Then there are people like me, who won't answer even landline phone polls because they tend to be a waste of time.

Anonymous said...

Just voted!

Anonymous said...

may the force be with the rep!

Chalmers said...

rove is confident because he is an idiot. at least we know he isn't praying for a victory.

Dr. Melissa said...

Well, we can see where feelings get ya. I'm going back to the facts.

Anonymous said...

How utterly disappointing this is! It will be interesting to see the changes.