Left: This picture was in Houston during Tropical Storm Erin, yesterday.
Well, we'll see about Texas, but it's pretty clear that Dean is doing some body-building and may be suffering from Roid Rage by tomorrow. For Texans, tomorrow morning's forecast will be the critical one, according to Brendan Loy.
As an aside, reading the news this morning, I just realized how fatigued I am about the hurricane thing. It may be because the Houston area has had the rainiest summer ever. Non-stop rain for days and that has just recently lifted. It's rainy again today and the notion of having to decide whether to evacuate again. Ugh. Here's what Brendan says:
As for Dean’s future track, Berger says the latest model runs show “some hints that Dean might skirt the Yucatan peninsula and come into the Gulf between there and Cuba,” which would be the “worst-case scenario” that I diagrammed yesterday. But that’s four days away yet, and anyway most models still show the storm hitting the Yucatan.
After that? The current consensus is a final landfall somewhere between the Mexico-Belize border and the Texas-Louisiana border. Dr. Masters said earlier today that he’d “be surprised to see Dean make a turn northwards in the Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana or points further east, as there are no strong troughs of low pressure coming across the U.S. until late next week.” That statement still appears to hold, for the most part, although the GFDL is now taking Dean toward western Louisiana.