Monday, August 20, 2007

Hurricane Dean's Route Nearly Miraculous

Personally, I believe prayer works. That might sound absurd while writing about a very scientific thing like a hurricane. But that's just it, the possibilities and probabilities for this storm were dire. And yet, this storm has shimmied its way through the Caribbean and may now shimmy its way through Mexico:

As Hurricane Dean's forecast track moves south we can begin to become cautiously optimistic that the powerful storm will move ashore into a relatively unpopulated area of Mexico's Quintana Roo state on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Dean this morning has re-strengthened into a 150-mph hurricane. However, its hurricane-force winds extend only 60 miles in each direction. Under the current scenario, based upon models that have the system as a powerful Cat. 4 system before a Yucatan landfall, Dean would only very briefly bring Category-1 winds over Cozumel, and tropical storm-force winds over Cozumel.

For Mexico this is the best possible scenario and something to hope for. With landfall less than a day away, it's also a plausible scenario.

I do think prayer works. And many of the forecasters asked for prayers for the people of Jamaica and Grand Cayman. Scientists asking for prayers. Doctors do this all the time with patients. Humans are very limited. But every doctor has seen miracles. I think we're witnessing an amazing thing with Dean. Let's continue to pray that it stays on its path and spares Mexico's population the worst.

And it's a good time to give thanks, too.

It is also a good time to remember the hard facts. We're only half-way through hurricane season. Dean was truly the beginning.

Leaving everything to faith and not preparing is tempting God. So stock up on emergency supplies and stay alert. There's another wave forming in the Caribbean.

Let's pray it's nothing.