Hurricane Dean Hitting Mexican Mainland

Right now, Dean is hitting the most densely populated area on its trajectory. The people there are experiencing 100 mph winds. More here.

Dr. Jeff Masters has damage estimates:

The Mexican coast near the landfall point is the most densely populated area Dean will affect, and damage there will probably exceed $1 billion. Risk Management Solutions has estimated the insured damage to the Yucatan was between $750 million and $1.5 billion. Total damage is typically double the insured damage, so the price tag for Dean will be very steep for Mexico. Dean also did an estimated $3 billion in damage to Jamaica, and $270 million to Martinique.

Dean's core passed just north of Chetumal, Mexico during its landfall as a Category 5 hurricane yesterday, and that city of 150,000 suffered mostly Category 1 and 2 hurricane damage. Power has already been restored, and the governor of the province estimated that the city would be back to normal in two weeks--except for the 3-6 months needed to repair some of the roads washed out. Farther north, about a third of the hotels and cabins in Tulum, and strip of coastal development just south of Cozumel, received damage. Beach erosion was significant all along the Yucatan. The worst damage was reported in Majahual, on the coast 30 miles northeast of Chetumal, where the full Category 5 strength of the storm was felt. According to the Associated Press, "Hundreds of homes were collapsed in Majahual when Dean's eye passed almost directly overhead, crumpling steel girders, splintering wooden structures and washing away about half of the immense concrete dock that transformed the sleepy fishing village into Mexico's second-busiest cruise ship destination on the peninsula. The storm surge covered almost the entire town in waist-deep sea water." For those interested in tracking the effects of the storm, the Hurricane Dean wikipedia page is an excellent source of information.

This is a big, bad storm and it continues its destruction. So far, though, there hasn't been nearly as many lives lost as thought likely.

Hurricane Dean Roars Ashore

That perfect eye wall is a marvel to behold. Imagine sustained winds of 154 mph and gusts of 200mph. You can't.


WELL DEAN continued to be a worst case/best case scenario. First, the worst case. The hurricane came to shore as a strengthening Category 5. Now, the best case. The hurricane did hit a sparsely populated area. And it blew through fast. Here's the local's take:

"We began to feel the strong winds about 2 in the morning and you could hear that the trees were breaking and some tin roofs were coming off," said Miguel Colli, a 36-year-old store employee. "Everyone holed up in their houses. Thank God that the worst is over."

With the storm still screaming, there were no immediate reports of deaths, injuries or major damage, Quintana Roo Gov. Felix Gonzalez told Mexico's Televisa network, though officials had not been able to survey the area. In the Quintana Roo state capital, Chetumal, the storm downed trees and sent sheets of metal flying through the air.

At landfall, Dean had sustained winds near 165 mph and gusts that reached 200 mph — faster than the takeoff speed of many passenger jets. It was moving west-northwest near 20 mph across the Yucatan Peninsula.

Here's what happened in Cancun:

Our lovely house guest just returned from a quick trip to the hotel zone to check on his house. Good news all around. There is some flooding, but there is always a little after the simplest rain. Their house was totally dry thank goodness, no harm done. A few trees and signs are down, but NO major damage seen at all. He has said that there is some flooding in Dreams Cancun as well. My husband just chatted with a friend who lives in Bonfil (a “suburb” of Cancun) and she said all is well, just the normal flooding from a little rain.

I couldn't find information about how those further south faired, but I'll post when I do. Dean will travel quickly and hit Mexico again. This has been a historic storm.

Hurricane Dean Overhyped?

In short: Not on the web. I don't watch TV, so I can't answer that.

What I do know is that I've had relatives and even other Houstonians ask if I'm going to evacuate. To which I reply with an incredulous, "Um, nooooo. The hurricane is hitting south of Cozumel. I don't think we have much to worry about."

So what are the news people saying?

Brian Neurdorff points to Houston's own SciGuy Eric Berger (who I've linked to aplenty over the last few days) who is wondering at the hype as he links to this FoxNews article titled: As Hurricane Dean Heads Toward Mexico, Texas Mobilizes Massive Response.

Officials have mobilized a massive response to the storm's landfall, and are particularly concerned about the south Texas areas of Galveston and Brownsville, where 44 lives were lost the last time a storm of Dean's magnitude hit the area in 1967, Steve McCraw, state director of homeland security, said.

Whaaat?

OK. I get being prepared, but come on. The risk of any part of Texas being hit is nearly zero. Dean would have to hang a hard right. The same article says:

The level of preparation for Dean was influenced by memories of two destructive hurricanes that hammered the Gulf Coast region in 2005.

"In part, it is because of the unfortunate events from Rita and Katrina," Cavazos said.

During Rita, the evacuation quickly turned into a nightmare of clogged highways, stalled traffic and sweltering heat, as motorists from the coast ran into residents fleeing Houston. Gas stations ran out of fuel and supplies, and drivers sat for hours on gridlocked evacuation routes.

Dean was a Category Four storm Monday, heading rapidly toward Mexico after crashing through Jamaica. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said it was projected to reach the most dangerous hurricane classification, Category 5, with wind of 160 mph before crashing into the Mexican coastline near Cancun on Monday night or Tuesday.

For the love of Pete. Just to be clear: I was an eye-witness to the mess on I-45. It was stuck for hours because of poor planning--by the state and by people leaving. The state didn't manage the flow very well, nor did they consider the bottleneck that existed right out of The Woodlands where I live. People here helped stranded travelers with food and drink and fuel. Which leads to the people stuck on the freeway. Who doesn't bring water and food with them? Sheesh! You know it will be slow going for a while. Plan for it.

And unless the state has a super-special secret plan up their sleeves, the bottleneck in Texas will be in Conroe should we be hit again, which is a forsaken mess on an average day at an average time, forget rush hour. And it would be tragic then, because there are no residential areas right adjacent to that spot of road and so people would be on their own should they run out of provisions or fuel.

Even given all that, I-45 was a absolutely deserted for hours before Hurricane Rita hit. EVERYONE who wanted to got out and got out safely. By that measure, the evacuation was a success. No one died stuck on the freeway, starving, thirsty and terrified in a car while the winds whipped up.

The big concern for Texas, at least on this side of the state, is that we're soaked. We've had such consistent rain, that flooding is a worry. Everyone is very grateful to have the Hurricane hitting far South. A direct hit would be very bad because of the weather this summer.

I can't say whether the MSM overhyped Hurricane Dean. But I think the web has been the best source of fair, balanced, intelligent, scientific, and dare I say, sensitive, coverage of a potentially devastating storm.

Dean Aftermath

Here is a post-Dean report from Jamaica. Took me long enough to find one:

Yes Dean was an unfortunate inconvenience and the effects will last for quite some time, but of all the reports I've seen...thank GOD Jamaica hasn't reported any loss of life.

I pray for the other nations who have lost citizens and property. We give thanks for life, and we are grateful our prayers were answered.

Parishes
St. Thomas: extensive damage has been reported from several
communities. Significant wind damage to roofs, storm surges, flooding, collapsed
structures, impassable roadways are among the many reports.

St. James: the community of Coral Gardens is severely affected by wind
damage.

Kingston and St. Andrew: severe wind damage and downed power lines in
the Riverton city area. Also, a fallen tree caused the collapse of a
residential building in the Chambers Lane Area of Liguanea, St. Andrew.

Clarendon: flooding has been reported from the Denbigh gully.

Portland: several roadways in Port Antonio, Manchioneal, Mount James
and Mount Airy in Buff Bay are blocked.

St. Mary: several roadways from Junction to Broadgate are impassable,
blocked by fallen trees.

St. Catherine: storm surges have been reported along the Port Henderson
road in Portmore rendering the roadway impassable along with roof
damage in the communities of Naggo Head and Newland. The Newland Road is
also impassable due to a fallen utility pole. Additionally, sections of
the roadway have been eroded in Hellshire due to storm surges and rising
water levels have been reported in Old Harbour forcing the evacuation
of several persons.


Services:
Telecommunications: cellular telephone lines are down in sections of
Portland, St. Mary, and Clarendon and there is no communication link with
St. Thomas with efforts are underway to re-establish this.

Electricity: well over 125,000 Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS)
customers are without power supply.

Water Supply: there have been reports of damage to water supply
systems.

Source: Gleaner/Power 106 News

This from Dominican Republic:

3 days after Dean hit, still no water or electricity, though I was heartened to look across the valley to Eggleston last night and see street lights on.

Basically, it's like the island has been pruned. All the old trees, dead leaves etc. have been stripped. This does have the benefit of opening up more views where before there was no vista.

Town's back to normal - business as usual today.

Here's how things are going along the coast in Mexico:

That green star is Merida, which means at this point, the hurricane would be going over Uxmal. This might not be good news for Chetumal, Felipe Carrillo Puerto and Uxmal, but these are much less populated areas than Cancun and Merida, so it’s good news overall.

Hurricane Dean's Route Nearly Miraculous

Personally, I believe prayer works. That might sound absurd while writing about a very scientific thing like a hurricane. But that's just it, the possibilities and probabilities for this storm were dire. And yet, this storm has shimmied its way through the Caribbean and may now shimmy its way through Mexico:

As Hurricane Dean's forecast track moves south we can begin to become cautiously optimistic that the powerful storm will move ashore into a relatively unpopulated area of Mexico's Quintana Roo state on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Dean this morning has re-strengthened into a 150-mph hurricane. However, its hurricane-force winds extend only 60 miles in each direction. Under the current scenario, based upon models that have the system as a powerful Cat. 4 system before a Yucatan landfall, Dean would only very briefly bring Category-1 winds over Cozumel, and tropical storm-force winds over Cozumel.

For Mexico this is the best possible scenario and something to hope for. With landfall less than a day away, it's also a plausible scenario.

I do think prayer works. And many of the forecasters asked for prayers for the people of Jamaica and Grand Cayman. Scientists asking for prayers. Doctors do this all the time with patients. Humans are very limited. But every doctor has seen miracles. I think we're witnessing an amazing thing with Dean. Let's continue to pray that it stays on its path and spares Mexico's population the worst.

And it's a good time to give thanks, too.

It is also a good time to remember the hard facts. We're only half-way through hurricane season. Dean was truly the beginning.


Leaving everything to faith and not preparing is tempting God. So stock up on emergency supplies and stay alert. There's another wave forming in the Caribbean.

Let's pray it's nothing.

Hurricane Dean Could Have Hit Jamaica Worse

It will be bad enough. Here's what some locals are saying:

Writing from liguanea area. Winds not as bad as Ivan. Lots of trees down but
considering dean is just 50 miles south things are not as bad as we expected.
Hoping this is it.

Corinne

Looks like the worst is past Kingston now so praying for the rest of the island in Dean's path!!!

Hurricane DEAN Public Advisory

One Love,

Tracy

Well, that's just anecdotal. We'll see how it ends up tomorrow. But the worst is over. There will be terrible damage. A gazillion trees down, roofs, holes and lots and lots of rainwater, flooding, mudslides and general misery.

As the storm tracks south, it looks like the middle Yucatan Peninsula will be blasted full-force and that the storm will head to the center of Mexico, but the Sci Guy Eric Berger says that's a good thing:

If there's a bright spot today it's that Dean's landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula has also been moving south, just north of El Placer, Mexico. This is better than further north (which would batter the resorts of Cancun and Cozumel) and further south (affecting Belize City). The area in Quintana Roo around El Placer is relatively unpopulated.

Let's continue to pray that that's exactly what happens.

Pray That Hurricane Dean Lightly Touches Jamaica, It's Working!

Jamaica is starting to receive the winds of Hurricane Dean. Some are predicting a glancing blow. The satellite image looks ominous, though. Dr. Jeff Masters says:

Jamaica is already receiving high winds and heavy rain from an outer spiral band. How bad will it get? The big question is if the eyewall will move over the island.

Unfortunately for Jamaica, Dean has two eyewalls, forming concentric rings (Figure 1). The inner eyewall is 15 miles in diameter, and the outer eyewall is 37 miles in diameter. Winds of Category 3 and 4 strength are blowing in both eyewalls, as seen in the latest data from the SFMR surface winds taken by the Hurricane Hunters. So, Dean's center has to pass more than 25 miles south of Jamaica for the island to be spared the worst of the hurricane. The nation's capital, Kingston, lies on the southern portion of the island, and will be the hardest-hit major city. The tourist city of Montego Bay is on the northern part of Jamaica, and will fare much better.

A Jamaican blogger says they're already feeling it, a bit. And some Jamaican fishermen are stranded on a lower island. They're going to need a miracle (Storm Crib is the best link I've seen for local updates):

A report just came in from nationwide radio that 17
persons are stranded on the Middle Keys.(Small
low-lying Islands well 89miles south of Jamaica used
by fishermen).

Here's a link to local radio courtesy Instapundit.

Eric Berger has thoughts for Texans and this is most important:

Should that come to pass I would hope Texas and the rest of the country would do what it could to help Jamaica and Mexico, as these two nations appear set to bear the brunt of the most intense hurricane to form since 2005's Wilma.

Let's hope the hurricane rumbles through an unpopulated area.

Keep praying. It works!

Hurricane Dean Will Spare America, Probably

But the places hit by Dean will suffer mightily: Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Mexico are in big trouble. As I said before, pray for Jamaica. And others are praying, too.

If you're an American in Mexico, vacationing, get out:

In addition, airport officials at Cancun and Cozumel were contacting airlines to ask that flights be canceled and diverted, Gonzalez said. He added 60,000 tourists had been scheduled to arrive along Mexico's Caribbean coast this weekend.

Gonzalez said it was hoped that passenger planes would arrive nearly empty and be able to carry out tourists who wish to leave. Many foreign tourists arrive in Cancun and nearby resorts on package plans, which run weekend to weekend.

I don't know what kind of person would head toward this disaster. This is one time to leave that American can-do spirit for helping those who need it afterward. And they will need help:

The short-term intensity forecast is a bit uncertain given the
double eyewall structure...but the central pressure is quite low and
the inner core could quickly reorganize at any time...so any dip in
the intensity will probably be short-lived. Throughout its stay in
the Caribbean Sea during the next 48 hours or so...atmospheric and
oceanic conditions remain supportive of a category four or five
intensity as suggested by all of the objective guidance. Since the
new track forecast results in a longer stay over the Yucatan
Peninsula...the official intensity forecast has been lowered
slightly over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico...but still indicates
a major hurricane at final landfall.