Hurricane Dean Will Spare America, Probably

But the places hit by Dean will suffer mightily: Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Mexico are in big trouble. As I said before, pray for Jamaica. And others are praying, too.

If you're an American in Mexico, vacationing, get out:

In addition, airport officials at Cancun and Cozumel were contacting airlines to ask that flights be canceled and diverted, Gonzalez said. He added 60,000 tourists had been scheduled to arrive along Mexico's Caribbean coast this weekend.

Gonzalez said it was hoped that passenger planes would arrive nearly empty and be able to carry out tourists who wish to leave. Many foreign tourists arrive in Cancun and nearby resorts on package plans, which run weekend to weekend.

I don't know what kind of person would head toward this disaster. This is one time to leave that American can-do spirit for helping those who need it afterward. And they will need help:

The short-term intensity forecast is a bit uncertain given the
double eyewall structure...but the central pressure is quite low and
the inner core could quickly reorganize at any time...so any dip in
the intensity will probably be short-lived. Throughout its stay in
the Caribbean Sea during the next 48 hours or so...atmospheric and
oceanic conditions remain supportive of a category four or five
intensity as suggested by all of the objective guidance. Since the
new track forecast results in a longer stay over the Yucatan
Peninsula...the official intensity forecast has been lowered
slightly over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico...but still indicates
a major hurricane at final landfall.

Hurricane Dean: Houston Outside The Cone, For Now

It looks like Hurricane Dean will go south of us. Well, it looks that way right now. Dean looks to be heading straight for Jamaica. If it peals off a little north or south, the course could completely change:

Still, as Sullivan notes, small wobbles can have big implications, and it would behoove everyone in the Gulf to keep paying attention. It was, after all, a wholly unexpected leftward wobble over the Florida peninsula that sealed New Orleans’s fate in 2005, sending Katrina hurtling toward the central Gulf instead of the panhandle.

Watch and wait. And continue to pray for Jamaica. They appear to be in a world of hurt. If you haven't been in winds that go up to 150 mph, it's hard to describe it. It will be a terrifying time for those in its path.

Home School Conferences: Steer Clear or Be Zombified

So I go to the Home Schooling Conference today. It almost scared me straight...into public schools and all that that implies.

First, the registration line stretched to the door. Ahead of me were two families and twenty kids. One lady had four blond, blue-eyed boys ages two to five. Cute as widdle buttons, they were. Ahead of her a bigger, motley crew. Who has time for a bath when there's one bathroom for sixteen kids? Be fruitful and multiply, indeed.

After filling out paperwork, receiving badges, a complimentary nap sack filled with a plethora of Helpful Information, I thought this is just the beginning. Holy crap! I'm screwed! All this paperwork, the pressure, the people. They have sixteen kids and home school and I can't even change my kid's soaked diaper by lunchtime.

It got worse and scarier. There were the ladies with do rags. I think they're Mennonites, but I'm not sure. Hey, that's alright. I'm all for religious freedom and what not. Still, what up with wearing the nun-hat and having sixteen kids? No make-up, clothes without buttons, every kid looking like a Van Trapp reject. Forget the curtains, I think that kid is wearing a repurposed pillowcase. This scene kind of confirms stereotypes, you know?

And then you see them altogether. Hundreds of children, pale, obedient, absurdly intelligent children, with intense, unyielding eye contact. I was in Village of the Damned. Who are these zombie children and what planet did they come from? None of them pushed or shoved. No punching. No whining. No tans. No muscle tone.

You see, there are a variety of reasons people don't home school. Reason number one: Zombie Children. Oh, they're nice to talk to. Their breadth of knowledge is superseded only by their depth of understanding. They'll share interesting anecdotes and give pithy comments and you will slowly start backing away because you are terrified. And by you, I mean me. My philosophy professor in college was more superficial. People see these kids and they see mini-adults who have all the qualities they wish their children possessed and yet, when they see them in real life, they get say to themselves, "You know maybe I was too hard on Johnny's teacher last year. Our problem is our excessive expectations. Why are we so obsessed with the alphabet? Sheesh! There's always fifth grade!" And off to public school Johnny goes.

I almost ran way. Truly. The kicker was throwing up a bit in my mouth at the subservient women shuffling a few steps behind their pasty, underemployed husbands. You know the guy, he's always working on some "mission work" or he stays at some crappy job because he's "ministering" to his co-workers which is code for he's ministering to the secretary while bringing home an STD and 200 bucks a week. (That was just wrong.)

And all this happened before I walked into the exhibition hall. Once there, I found some normal people, but I had to seek for a while. The Boy Scout guys were normal--muscle tone, firm handshakes, familiarity with fire arms. The science guy from the Natural Science Museum was abnormally normal--gaunt frame, pony tail, toothy grin. The sports people all acted normal, too. And when I went to the booth that featured the curriculum I was curious about using with my children, teenage boys greeted me. Nice, but smartalecky, too. Normal teenagers! Jackpot! They were helping out their moms, who were normal. I'm buying that curriculum for one reason only: the normal kids.

All in all, I think it's better if I don't go to home schooling conferences. Home schooling is freaky enough without witnessing all the terrifying evidence that the product from this endeavor will be a freaky kid. Freaky smart. Freaky kind. Freaky friendly. Freaky. Freaky. Freaky.

And on a different, but similarly surreal note: Target was nuts today. Are people worried about being drowned in a flash flood or killed by a falling tree courtesy Hurricane Dean? No. They are worried about saving sales tax on the clothes they are buying for their kids at full price. No one seems to realize that the big discounts come over Labor Day and the 40% off then far exceeds the 10% tax savings now. So Target was mobbed and the rain poured outside. Again.

And Dean screams. But that's a problem for a different day. Today, t-shirts and jeans.

Target had an ignored water display and the few emergency kits were nearly sold out. In The Woodlands there are three semi-prepared people. And I am one of them. My husband guffaws at my preparation. We'll see who's laughing come next Wednesday. It probably won't be me. I'm the over-prepared optimist. I hope it won't happen, but just in case.

I'm an optimist. I'll home school, but my kids will turn out normal. That notion was debatable with a public school education, but somehow, being chained to the kitchen table doing flash cards with me will make them normal. See? That's what makes me an optimist.

Hurricane Dean Doomsday Scenario

How's this for a doomsday scenario?

1. Stock market oscillates
2. Banks start going belly up
3. Housing continues to lose value
4. Hurricane Dean destroys Gulf oil rigs and Texas refineries (1/3 of the U.S. oil production)
5. Hurricane Dean severely damages Houston (now home to more energy companies since New Orleans bottomed out)
6. Lives are lost
   
7. Texas economy tanks
8. Oil up, inflation ensues
9. Stock market crashes

Hey, all I'm saying is that it could get worse. For concrete scary stuff that is happening right now, go visit Mama.

Brendan tells Jamaicans to get out. NOW.

And for Texans he says this:

If you live in Texas, it’s far too early to think about evacuating from Hurricane Dean — he’s at least five days away yet, and could potentially go anywhere from Belize to Louisiana, or perhaps even further east. But Eric Berger offers some good advice to Texans, particularly in the Houston-Galveston area: review the relevant disaster plans and maps, and decide if you’ll eventually need to evacuate, if Dean heads your way. That advice works well for the whole Gulf coast, actually. As Scar from The Lion King would say: “Be Prepared!”

Here's Eric Berger's advice (read the whole thing):

Residents in the outer zone along the coast are advised to evacuate during any hurricane, those in the middle zone for major hurricanes (Cat 3, 4 and 5) and those in the inner zone for Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. If you live outside a surge zone officials do not recommend evacuation unless you live in a mobile home, or until you've waited for coastal residents to evacuate.

During Rita, we stayed. East of I-45, there was considerable flooding and some friends were without power for weeks. It was nerve-wracking staying. Even here, it felt like a ghost town. The stores are closed for days after the storm. As food dwindles anxiety increases. My husband flatly stated that next time we would leave. In The Woodlands, we are clearly outside the recommended evacuation zone.

I'm inclined to evacuate after last time. This is inspiring me to take another grocery trip. More water. More water.

SURVIVE ANYTHING! Promises Popular Mechanics

Well, folks, here's the new and improved survival information, courtesy Popular Mechanics. I put a few of their lists ups before so you people didn't have to weary your frail little fingers to click on the link. This time, you'll have to go over yourself. The information is pretty exhaustive.

H/T Glenn Reynolds

Hurrican Dean: Yucutan & Jamaica In Trouble, Texas Next?

Left: This picture was in Houston during Tropical Storm Erin, yesterday.

Well, we'll see about Texas, but it's pretty clear that Dean is doing some body-building and may be suffering from Roid Rage by tomorrow. For Texans, tomorrow morning's forecast will be the critical one, according to Brendan Loy.

As an aside, reading the news this morning, I just realized how fatigued I am about the hurricane thing. It may be because the Houston area has had the rainiest summer ever. Non-stop rain for days and that has just recently lifted. It's rainy again today and the notion of having to decide whether to evacuate again. Ugh. Here's what Brendan says:

As for Dean’s future track, Berger says the latest model runs show “some hints that Dean might skirt the Yucatan peninsula and come into the Gulf between there and Cuba,” which would be the “worst-case scenario” that I diagrammed yesterday. But that’s four days away yet, and anyway most models still show the storm hitting the Yucatan.
After that? The current consensus is a final landfall somewhere between the Mexico-Belize border and the Texas-Louisiana border. Dr. Masters said earlier today that he’d “be surprised to see Dean make a turn northwards in the Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana or points further east, as there are no strong troughs of low pressure coming across the U.S. until late next week.” That statement still appears to hold, for the most part, although the GFDL is now taking Dean toward western Louisiana.

Hurricane Dean Looks Mean

Houston survived the drenching today although parts of town flooded. Still watching Hurricane Dean gather strength. Two of the predictions have it heading to the Texas coast. The historical map has no hurricanes ever coming this way. Do those matter? I need to ask Brendan Loy that.

No matter, start yer preparations, people!

The grocery store was busy, quiet and efficient. Water displays were up everywhere. It will get more serious this weekend, especially if Dean looks intent on visiting us.

Hurricane Dean & Tropical Storm Erin: It's Raining Again

Well, Tropical Storm Erin is pouring on The Woodlands, Texas right now. Parts of Houston are flooding.

That is why I'm concerned about Dean. A stalled out storm could do severe damage.

Home Sales Down

Down again across the country. An interesting thing is happening here, in The Woodlands, though. Sales of homes above $500,000 are moving briskly and increasing in value by over 15%/year. Sales of homes below $500,000 are slow, the market is glutted, and lots of lease-able houses are available. I don't know what to make of it, exactly. My guess is that owners in the lower range are defaulting and can't afford to even rent those homes. It's probably a good time to be renting used mobile homes for $700 a month.

From The New York Times:

Those problems have been exacerbated in recent months by spreading problems in the subprime mortgage market, which offered loans to buyers with spotty credit histories. Rising defaults in those areas are dumping more homes onto an already glutted market.

The sales declines covered all parts of the country. Sales were down 7.3 percent in the Northeast and 6.8 percent in the West. Sales fell 2.8 percent in the Midwest and 1.7 percent in the South.

There is a glutted market, alright. I'm just wondering if people in the East and West are seeing the same disparity--the bigger homes asking for more, the smaller defaulting. This would mean that the number of lower-income, middle-class people suffering is astronomical to pull the whole market down.

The Woodlands, Texas Crime--UPDATED

Woodlands residents beware. This via email and confirmed by the Woodlands Community Association:

My father just called me because I often walk to PC's shopping center to eat at Brooklyn Bagel.
A coworker of his just went there to run into Sear's around 1pm. As she left her car and was in the lot, 2 black males approached her with a gun, told her to get in their car....she hit her 'panic' button on her keychain and they bolted.

A few weeks ago, a mother who ran in to get her toddler at preschool nearly had her car carjacked with her infant in it.

The local newspaper, The Villager, rarely covers these events. They do get reported through an email neighborhood watch group. At least once every two weeks I'm receiving news of some violent attempt on women with children.

Since the police can't be everywhere, citizens need to be informed. It's no use pretending that this isn't happening. They should be widely publicized, along with descriptions of the would-be criminals, so people can be aware and protect themselves.

Here's how you can help:

In the future, and after you have contacted law enforcement, your welcome to enter this type of information into our resident “Service Request System” at the associations website, www.thewoodlandsassociations.org , and clicking on, make a request, request a service, criminal activity. This will allow us to follow-up on the activity through our reporting system.

Or, you can get a concealed handgun permit and arm yourself.


UPDATE: Thank you Kman for the link to The Woodlands Monitor. I'm going to add it to the blog roll. All sorts of great local info.

Conservative Conservationsists

Is Global Warming a bunch of hooey? I think that the earth is warming, sure. So what? We are but specks of dust in the scheme of the universe. Does that mean that I don't believe we should take care of our global home? Uh, no. For the Christians among us, the scripture "dress and keep it" covers that base. Notice, the scripture doesn't say, "worship it".

John Hawkins interviews Dennis Avery at The Hudson Institute:

"Well, if this were a human caused warming, it should have started
about 1940 and trended strongly upward as global industrialization
followed World War 2. That isn't what happened. The warming started
about 1850. We had a surge of warming from about 1850 to 1870. We had
another surge from 1916 to 1940 and then, when the greenhouse gasses
began to spew from the factories, the temperatures went down for 35
years. 1976 to 1998, we had another surge of warming, but we've had no
warming in the last 8 years. So, what we have is an erratic warming
that started too soon to be blamed on humans and is not following in
the footsteps of the CO2 levels in the atmosphere."

"Q: If this is such a good explanation -- and it does seem to make
sense -- why do you think there are so many scientists out there who
say that man is responsible for global warming?

A: Well John, if people believe me, there wouldn't be 2 billion
dollars a year in Federal research grants to set-up computerized
climate models, Greenpeace wouldn't be selling memberships to people
terrified of warming, and Al Gore would have to get a real job."

Here's the thing, though: I think conservatives are some of the biggest conservationists. My home town is a case in point. I live in The Woodlands, Texas. It is a planned community with one focal point: trees. Back in the early '70s, a gas and oil baron George Mitchell, embarked on a utopian dream: create a planned community where people could work, live, shop, and congregate in villages. The place would be gentle to the surrounding ecology. It was started with a HUD grant, if you can believe it.

My community votes almost exclusively Republican. They are vocal and active. When huge electric and telephone wires were going to cut through the center of the community, public outrage ensued. The local energy company said that the cost was prohibitive, that putting the lines under the ground would be disruptive, etc. Wrong answer. The lawyers and engineers teeming in this community came together, got people to donate, and funded their own cost benefit analysis. There are probably more engineers, ecologists, and scientists per capita here than on some Universities. The Woodlands got their underground wires.

All income levels are integrated. There is low-income housing less than a mile from multi-million dollar mansions. And the mansions are not gated. The first and only gated community came to The Woodlands last year. Senior housing is built next to shopping, banks, restaurants and entertainment. A person of meager means doesn't need to own a car here.

There are miles of bike-paths. There are parks everywhere and they are used, a lot. There are beautiful public pools. The life guards are specially trained. Hundreds of them serve and go on to be well-trained water safety experts.

Environmental concerns draw people here. The number one reason people choose The Woodlands is ..... the trees. Yes, the trees. Earth Day is huge. Seedlings and seeds for trees and flowers are given out each year. The community wins awards for its recycling. People are obsessive about it. There are all sorts of restrictions about cutting trees.

Here are some of the environmental awards given to this conservative community.

After living here, it is my belief that Conservatives are very concerned about conservation. The more religious among us, especially care about the environment. The notion that the Left claims moral authority on environmental concerns is another myth. My community proves it.

Oh, and the community has connections to and loves Rudy!

Trading Liberty For Laws in Texas

A new bill in Texas will criminalize a parent who fails to show up to a parent-teacher conference. While California wants to legislate discipline, Texas wants to legislate the parent-teacher relationship.

It will be considered a Class C misdemeanor to miss the kid's conference and all the fees from the penalties will go to the school who reports the parents. The teachers play communist informants and get paid for their trouble.

In Michigan, you get put in the clink for cheating on your wife (a fine law, I might add). In California, don't you dare spank your kid. And in Texas, come to the school when the teacher says, or else!

Chip, chip, chip, our freedoms get taken away. And locally, the crappy little city of Shenandoah is using the wonderful new Supreme Court decision to take a man's property under eminent domain for far less than it's worth so they can build a parking lot.